Sit Tight: Don't draft a TE early!

The TE’s place in the world of fantasy football is ever evolving. It’s gone from a position that was basically a glorified offensive tackle, to one of fantasy relevance. This year I believe the position has more depth than it ever has. That’s why I won’t be drafting a TE until later in my drafts. Let’s take a quick look below at that strategy.

Of what I would consider the top 5 TE’s, 4 have red flags and risk factors (Gates, Finley, Witten, Clark & Davis, in no particular order). There could be reward for drafting one of them early, but it could also doom your team. All the TE’s listed above are going in the first 5 rounds of most fantasy drafts. With the depth at TE this season, I’d prefer to take other positions in the first 5 rounds and get a high upside TE (or two) much later in the draft.

Let’s take a quick look at the red flags and risk factors for the top 5 TE’s in more detail.

Antonio Gates – If healthy, the guy is basically unstoppable. He’s attached to an elite QB in a good situation. Through 10 games last year Gates was a monster (50/782/10). However, he missed the last 6 games due to injury. His health concerns are too much for me to overlook that early.

Jermichael Finley – There is clearly upside with Finley. But he’s never played a full 16 game season (three seasons). He only played five games last season. He also had only 1 TD in those five games. I get the upside, but I’m not taking Finley in the 4th round, which is where you’ll have to take him if you want him.

Dallas Clark – Only played one full 16 game season in eight years. He’s coming off a season ending wrist injury (and still wearing a wrist brace). Tamme is a more than capable backup if he gets dinged at all. Taking him in the 4th round is just too rich for my blood.

Vernon Davis – Like the player, hate the situation. Davis has scored 20 TD’s in the last two seasons and he’s durable. But his QB situation is horrible and not getting better this season. Right now Braylon Edwards in the only other legit receiving threat, which means Davis will draw the focus of opposing defenses.

Jason Witten – Of the top 5 TE’s Witten is the one without any red flags. He’s caught 90+ passes in 4 of his last 5 seasons. He gets Romo back this year. Marion Barber is gone to vulture red zone looks and touches. His TD production was also way up last season.

As mentioned earlier, I won’t be paying the high price tag for any of the TE’s listed above. Instead, I’ll sit patiently taking RB’s and WR’s early, and then take a TE later in my drafts. Below are several TE’s I’ll be targeting.

Jared Cook – The word “Upside” has been attached to his name many times. I prefer “breakout”. No TE is poised to skyrocket in value like Cook is this season. His measurables are off the chart (6-foot-5, 250lbs, has a 40 time under 4.5). Matt Hasselbeck is the new QB and I expect him to target Cook early and often. Also, the longer Chris Johnson holds out, the better Cook’s value.

Greg Olsen – New team, new QB, new offense…those are usually all negatives for a player. However, in Olsen’s case, I think they are all positives. I expect Cam Newton to start for the Panthers in Week 1. I also expect him to look for Olsen a lot. His TD total might not be more than a handful, but he’s more than capable of posting Jason Witten like numbers, circa 2008 (81/952/4).

Jermaine Gresham – Ocho and T.O. are both gone. That leaves a lot of targets that will go somewhere. New QB Andy Dalton will need a safety valve. The Bengals should be horrible on offense, so TD’s will be hard to come by, but 75+ catches, around 700 yards and 4-5 TD’s are possible. That’s only 23 more catches and 229 yards more than he had last season. Tell me you don’t think he can catch 1.4 more passes a game with Ocho and T.O. gone.

Brandon Pettigrew – If Matt Stafford can stay healthy the Lions will be an elite offense. Pettigrew finished last season with 71/722/4. Those are more than respectable numbers for a 2nd year TE. I think he can take an even larger leap this year. With the loss of rookie Mikel Leshoure for the season (Achilles), the Lions will focus heavily on the pass (even in the red zone). I’d expect 80 catches, 800 yards and 6-8 TD’s. Not bad for the 16th TE taken off the board!

Ben Watson – Fantasy points go to where the targets go! Watson was targeted over 100 times in 2010. He’s a great spot starter with upside to be more.

In summation, the TE position is Laurentian Abyss deep. That’s can’t be said for all positions (especially RB’s in my opinion). You’re doing yourself a favor by stockpiling RB and WR talent in the early rounds. You can still get a TE1 option after round 10 in most drafts. Don’t be the sucker that takes a TE in round 3.

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